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I Automated & Backtested ParallaxFX Strategy
I am a Software Engineer / Data Scientist and I decided to give a go at automating a strategy based on the ParallaxFX strategy floating around and backtests the results, also due to some inspiration by Vanguer
I backtested on the majors 4H timeframe between January 2015 to January 2020.
I am only considering trades from the top and bottom bands for now.
Disclaimer: None of this is financial advice. I have no idea what I'm doing. Please do your own research or you will certainly lose money. I'm not a statistician, data scientist, well-seasoned trader, or anything else that would qualify me to make statements such as the below with any weight behind them. Take them for the incoherent ramblings that they are. TL;DR at the bottom for those not interested in the details. This is a bit of a novel, sorry about that. It was mostly for getting my own thoughts organized, but if even one person reads the whole thing I will feel incredibly accomplished.
For those of you not familiar, please see the various threads on this trading system here. I can't take credit for this system, all glory goes to ParallaxFX! I wanted to see how effective this system was at H1 for a couple of reasons: 1) My current broker is TD Ameritrade - their Forex minimum is a mini lot, and I don't feel comfortable enough yet with the risk to trade mini lots on the higher timeframes(i.e. wider pip swings) that ParallaxFX's system uses, so I wanted to see if I could scale it down. 2) I'm fairly impatient, so I don't like to wait days and days with my capital tied up just to see if a trade is going to win or lose. This does mean it requires more active attention since you are checking for setups once an hour instead of once a day or every 4-6 hours, but the upside is that you trade more often this way so you end up winning or losing faster and moving onto the next trade. Spread does eat more of the trade this way, but I'll cover this in my data below - it ends up not being a problem. I looked at data from 6/11 to 7/3 on all pairs with a reasonable spread(pairs listed at bottom above the TL;DR). So this represents about 3-4 weeks' worth of trading. I used mark(mid) price charts. Spreadsheet link is below for anyone that's interested.
I'm pretty much using ParallaxFX's system textbook, but since there are a few options in his writeups, I'll include all the discretionary points here:
I'm using the stop entry version - so I wait for the price to trade beyond the confirmation candle(in the direction of my trade) before entering. I don't have any data to support this decision, but I've always preferred this method over retracement-limit entries. Maybe I just like the feeling of a higher winrate even though there can be greater R:R using a limit entry. Variety is the spice of life.
I put my stop loss right at the opposite edge of the confirmation candle. NOT at the edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. I'll get into this more below - not enough trades are saved to justify the wider stops. (Wider stop means less $ per pip won, assuming you still only risk 1%).
All my profit/loss statistics are based on a 1% risk per trade. Because 1 is real easy to multiply.
There are definitely some questionable trades in here, but I tried to make it as mechanical as possible for evaluation purposes. They do fit the definitions of the system, which is why I included them. You could probably improve the winrate by being more discretionary about your trades by looking at support/resistance or other techniques.
I didn't use MBB much for either entering trades, or as support/resistance indicators. Again, trying to be pretty mechanical here just for data collection purposes. Plus, we all make bad trading decisions now and then, so let's call it even.
As stated in the title, this is for H1 only. These results may very well not play out for other time frames - who knows, it may not even work on H1 starting this Monday. Forex is an unpredictable place.
I collected data to show efficacy of taking profit at three different levels: -61.8%, -100% and -161.8% fib levels described in the system using the passive trade management method(set it and forget it). I'll have more below about moving up stops and taking off portions of a position.
And now for the fun. Results!
Total Trades: 241
TP at -61.8%: 177 out of 241: 73.44%
TP at -100%: 156 out of 241: 64.73%
TP at -161.8%: 121 out of 241: 50.20%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account):
TP at -61.8%: 5.22%
TP at -100%: 23.55%
TP at -161.8%: 29.14%
As you can see, a higher target ended up with higher profit despite a much lower winrate. This is partially just how things work out with profit targets in general, but there's an additional point to consider in our case: the spread. Since we are trading on a lower timeframe, there is less overall price movement and thus the spread takes up a much larger percentage of the trade than it would if you were trading H4, Daily or Weekly charts. You can see exactly how much it accounts for each trade in my spreadsheet if you're interested. TDA does not have the best spreads, so you could probably improve these results with another broker. EDIT: I grabbed typical spreads from other brokers, and turns out while TDA is pretty competitive on majors, their minors/crosses are awful! IG beats them by 20-40% and Oanda beats them 30-60%! Using IG spreads for calculations increased profits considerably (another 5% on top) and Oanda spreads increased profits massively (another 15%!). Definitely going to be considering another broker than TDA for this strategy. Plus that'll allow me to trade micro-lots, so I can be more granular(and thus accurate) with my position sizing and compounding.
A Note on Spread
As you can see in the data, there were scenarios where the spread was 80% of the overall size of the trade(the size of the confirmation candle that you draw your fibonacci retracements over), which would obviously cut heavily into your profits. Removing any trades where the spread is more than 50% of the trade width improved profits slightly without removing many trades, but this is almost certainly just coincidence on a small sample size. Going below 40% and even down to 30% starts to cut out a lot of trades for the less-common pairs, but doesn't actually change overall profits at all(~1% either way). However, digging all the way down to 25% starts to really make some movement. Profit at the -161.8% TP level jumps up to 37.94% if you filter out anything with a spread that is more than 25% of the trade width! And this even keeps the sample size fairly large at 187 total trades. You can get your profits all the way up to 48.43% at the -161.8% TP level if you filter all the way down to only trades where spread is less than 15% of the trade width, however your sample size gets much smaller at that point(108 trades) so I'm not sure I would trust that as being accurate in the long term. Overall based on this data, I'm going to only take trades where the spread is less than 25% of the trade width. This may bias my trades more towards the majors, which would mean a lot more correlated trades as well(more on correlation below), but I think it is a reasonable precaution regardless.
Time of Day
Time of day had an interesting effect on trades. In a totally predictable fashion, a vast majority of setups occurred during the London and New York sessions: 5am-12pm Eastern. However, there was one outlier where there were many setups on the 11PM bar - and the winrate was about the same as the big hours in the London session. No idea why this hour in particular - anyone have any insight? That's smack in the middle of the Tokyo/Sydney overlap, not at the open or close of either. On many of the hour slices I have a feeling I'm just dealing with small number statistics here since I didn't have a lot of data when breaking it down by individual hours. But here it is anyway - for all TP levels, these three things showed up(all in Eastern time):
7pm-4am: Fewer setups, but winrate high.
5am-6am: Lots of setups, but but winrate low.
12pm-3pm Medium number of setups, but winrate low.
I don't have any reason to think these timeframes would maintain this behavior over the long term. They're almost certainly meaningless. EDIT: When you de-dup highly correlated trades, the number of trades in these timeframes really drops, so from this data there is no reason to think these timeframes would be any different than any others in terms of winrate. That being said, these time frames work out for me pretty well because I typically sleep 12am-7am Eastern time. So I automatically avoid the 5am-6am timeframe, and I'm awake for the majority of this system's setups.
Moving stops up to breakeven
This section goes against everything I know and have ever heard about trade management. Please someone find something wrong with my data. I'd love for someone to check my formulas, but I realize that's a pretty insane time commitment to ask of a bunch of strangers. Anyways. What I found was that for these trades moving stops up...basically at all...actually reduced the overall profitability. One of the data points I collected while charting was where the price retraced back to after hitting a certain milestone. i.e. once the price hit the -61.8% profit level, how far back did it retrace before hitting the -100% profit level(if at all)? And same goes for the -100% profit level - how far back did it retrace before hitting the -161.8% profit level(if at all)? Well, some complex excel formulas later and here's what the results appear to be. Emphasis on appears because I honestly don't believe it. I must have done something wrong here, but I've gone over it a hundred times and I can't find anything out of place.
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 5.36%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): -1.01% (yes, a net loss)
Now, you might think exactly what I did when looking at these numbers: oof, the spread killed us there right? Because even when you move your SL to 0%, you still end up paying the spread, so it's not truly "breakeven". And because we are trading on a lower timeframe, the spread can be pretty hefty right? Well even when I manually modified the data so that the spread wasn't subtracted(i.e. "Breakeven" was truly +/- 0), things don't look a whole lot better, and still way worse than the passive trade management method of leaving your stops in place and letting it run. And that isn't even a realistic scenario because to adjust out the spread you'd have to move your stoploss inside the candle edge by at least the spread amount, meaning it would almost certainly be triggered more often than in the data I collected(which was purely based on the fib levels and mark price). Regardless, here are the numbers for that scenario:
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%
Winrate(breakeven doesn't count as a win): 46.4%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 17.97%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%
Winrate(breakeven doesn't count as a win): 65.97%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 11.60%
From a literal standpoint, what I see behind this behavior is that 44 of the 69 breakeven trades(65%!) ended up being profitable to -100% after retracing deeply(but not to the original SL level), which greatly helped offset the purely losing trades better than the partial profit taken at -61.8%. And 36 went all the way back to -161.8% after a deep retracement without hitting the original SL. Anyone have any insight into this? Is this a problem with just not enough data? It seems like enough trades that a pattern should emerge, but again I'm no expert. I also briefly looked at moving stops to other lower levels (78.6%, 61.8%, 50%, 38.2%, 23.6%), but that didn't improve things any. No hard data to share as I only took a quick look - and I still might have done something wrong overall. The data is there to infer other strategies if anyone would like to dig in deep(more explanation on the spreadsheet below). I didn't do other combinations because the formulas got pretty complicated and I had already answered all the questions I was looking to answer.
2-Candle vs Confirmation Candle Stops
Another interesting point is that the original system has the SL level(for stop entries) just at the outer edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. Out of pure laziness, I set up my stops just based on the confirmation candle. And as it turns out, that is much a much better way to go about it. Of the 60 purely losing trades, only 9 of them(15%) would go on to be winners with stops on the 2-candle formation. Certainly not enough to justify the extra loss and/or reduced profits you are exposing yourself to in every single other trade by setting a wider SL. Oddly, in every single scenario where the wider stop did save the trade, it ended up going all the way to the -161.8% profit level. Still, not nearly worth it.
As I've said many times now, I'm really not qualified to be doing an analysis like this. This section in particular. Looking at shared currency among the pairs traded, 74 of the trades are correlated. Quite a large group, but it makes sense considering the sort of moves we're looking for with this system. This means you are opening yourself up to more risk if you were to trade on every signal since you are technically trading with the same underlying sentiment on each different pair. For example, GBP/USD and AUD/USD moving together almost certainly means it's due to USD moving both pairs, rather than GBP and AUD both moving the same size and direction coincidentally at the same time. So if you were to trade both signals, you would very likely win or lose both trades - meaning you are actually risking double what you'd normally risk(unless you halve both positions which can be a good option, and is discussed in ParallaxFX's posts and in various other places that go over pair correlation. I won't go into detail about those strategies here). Interestingly though, 17 of those apparently correlated trades ended up with different wins/losses. Also, looking only at trades that were correlated, winrate is 83%/70%/55% (for the three TP levels). Does this give some indication that the same signal on multiple pairs means the signal is stronger? That there's some strong underlying sentiment driving it? Or is it just a matter of too small a sample size? The winrate isn't really much higher than the overall winrates, so that makes me doubt it is statistically significant. One more funny tidbit: EUCAD netted the lowest overall winrate: 30% to even the -61.8% TP level on 10 trades. Seems like that is just a coincidence and not enough data, but dang that's a sucky losing streak. EDIT: WOW I spent some time removing correlated trades manually and it changed the results quite a bit. Some thoughts on this below the results. These numbers also include the other "What I will trade" filters. I added a new worksheet to my data to show what I ended up picking.
Total Trades: 75
TP at -61.8%: 84.00%
TP at -100%: 73.33%
TP at -161.8%: 60.00%
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%: 53.33%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%: 53.33% (yes, oddly the exact same winrate. but different trades/profits)
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account):
TP at -61.8%: 18.13%
TP at -100%: 26.20%
TP at -161.8%: 34.01%
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%: 19.20%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%: 17.29%
To do this, I removed correlated trades - typically by choosing those whose spread had a lower % of the trade width since that's objective and something I can see ahead of time. Obviously I'd like to only keep the winning trades, but I won't know that during the trade. This did reduce the overall sample size down to a level that I wouldn't otherwise consider to be big enough, but since the results are generally consistent with the overall dataset, I'm not going to worry about it too much. I may also use more discretionary methods(support/resistance, quality of indecision/confirmation candles, news/sentiment for the pairs involved, etc) to filter out correlated trades in the future. But as I've said before I'm going for a pretty mechanical system. This brought the 3 TP levels and even the breakeven strategies much closer together in overall profit. It muted the profit from the high R:R strategies and boosted the profit from the low R:R strategies. This tells me pair correlation was skewing my data quite a bit, so I'm glad I dug in a little deeper. Fortunately my original conclusion to use the -161.8 TP level with static stops is still the winner by a good bit, so it doesn't end up changing my actions. There were a few times where MANY (6-8) correlated pairs all came up at the same time, so it'd be a crapshoot to an extent. And the data showed this - often then won/lost together, but sometimes they did not. As an arbitrary rule, the more correlations, the more trades I did end up taking(and thus risking). For example if there were 3-5 correlations, I might take the 2 "best" trades given my criteria above. 5+ setups and I might take the best 3 trades, even if the pairs are somewhat correlated. I have no true data to back this up, but to illustrate using one example: if AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, CAD/JPY, USD/CAD all set up at the same time (as they did, along with a few other pairs on 6/19/20 9:00 AM), can you really say that those are all the same underlying movement? There are correlations between the different correlations, and trying to filter for that seems rough. Although maybe this is a known thing, I'm still pretty green to Forex - someone please enlighten me if so! I might have to look into this more statistically, but it would be pretty complex to analyze quantitatively, so for now I'm going with my gut and just taking a few of the "best" trades out of the handful. Overall, I'm really glad I went further on this. The boosting of the B/E strategies makes me trust my calculations on those more since they aren't so far from the passive management like they were with the raw data, and that really had me wondering what I did wrong.
What I will trade
Putting all this together, I am going to attempt to trade the following(demo for a bit to make sure I have the hang of it, then for keeps):
"System Details" I described above.
TP at -161.8%
Static SL at opposite side of confirmation candle - I won't move stops up to breakeven.
Trade only 7am-11am and 4pm-11pm signals.
Nothing where spread is more than 25% of trade width.
Looking at the data for these rules, test results are:
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 47.43%
I'll be sure to let everyone know how it goes!
Other Technical Details
ATR is only slightly elevated in this date range from historical levels, so this should fairly closely represent reality even after the COVID volatility leaves the scalpers sad and alone.
The sample size is much too small for anything really meaningful when you slice by hour or pair. I wasn't particularly looking to test a specific pair here - just the system overall as if you were going to trade it on all pairs with a reasonable spread.
Here's the spreadsheet for anyone that'd like it. (EDIT: Updated some of the setups from the last few days that have fully played out now. I also noticed a few typos, but nothing major that would change the overall outcomes. Regardless, I am currently reviewing every trade to ensure they are accurate.UPDATE: Finally all done. Very few corrections, no change to results.) I have some explanatory notes below to help everyone else understand the spiraled labyrinth of a mind that put the spreadsheet together.
I'm on the East Coast in the US, so the timestamps are Eastern time.
Time stamp is from the confirmation candle, not the indecision candle. So 7am would mean the indecision candle was 6:00-6:59 and the confirmation candle is 7:00-7:59 and you'd put in your order at 8:00.
I found a couple AM/PM typos as I was reviewing the data, so let me know if a trade doesn't make sense and I'll correct it.
Insanely detailed spreadsheet notes
For you real nerds out there. Here's an explanation of what each column means:
Pair - duh
Date/Time - Eastern time, confirmation candle as stated above
Win to -61.8%? - whether the trade made it to the -61.8% TP level before it hit the original SL.
Win to -100%? - whether the trade made it to the -100% TP level before it hit the original SL.
Win to -161.8%? - whether the trade made it to the -161.8% TP level before it hit the original SL.
Retracement level between -61.8% and -100% - how deep the price retraced after hitting -61.8%, but before hitting -100%. Be careful to look for the negative signs, it's easy to mix them up. Using the fib% levels defined in ParallaxFX's original thread. A plain hyphen "-" means it did not retrace, but rather went straight through -61.8% to -100%. Positive 100 means it hit the original SL.
Retracement level between -100% and -161.8% - how deep the price retraced after hitting -100%, but before hitting -161.8%. Be careful to look for the negative signs, it's easy to mix them up. Using the fib% levels defined in ParallaxFX's original thread. A plain hyphen "-" means it did not retrace, but rather went straight through -100% to -161.8%. Positive 100 means it hit the original SL.
Trade Width(Pips) - the size of the confirmation candle, and thus the "width" of your trade on which to determine position size, draw fib levels, etc.
Loser saved by 2 candle stop? - for all losing trades, whether or not the 2-candle stop loss would have saved the trade and how far it ended up getting if so. "No" means it didn't save it, N/A means it wasn't a losing trade so it's not relevant.
Spread(ThinkorSwim) - these are typical spreads for these pairs on ToS.
Spread % of Width - How big is the spread compared to the trade width? Not used in any calculations, but interesting nonetheless.
True Risk(Trade Width + Spread) - I set my SL at the opposite side of the confirmation candle knowing that I'm actually exposing myself to slightly more risk because of the spread(stop order = market order when submitted, so you pay the spread). So this tells you how many pips you are actually risking despite the Trade Width. I prefer this over setting the stop inside from the edge of the candle because some pairs have a wide spread that would mess with the system overall. But also many, many of these trades retraced very nearly to the edge of the confirmation candle, before ending up nicely profitable. If you keep your risk per trade at 1%, you're talking a true risk of, at most, 1.25% (in worst-case scenarios with the spread being 25% of the trade width as I am going with above).
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -61.8% - not going to go into huge detail, see the spreadsheet for calculations if you want. But, in a nutshell, if the trade was a win to 61.8%, it returns a positive # based on 61.8% of the trade width, minus the spread. Otherwise, it returns the True Risk as a negative. Both normalized to the 1% risk you started with.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -100% - same as the last, but 100% of Trade Width.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -161.8% - same as the last, but 161.8% of Trade Width.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -100%, and move SL to breakeven at 61.8% - uses the retracement level columns to calculate profit/loss the same as the last few columns, but assuming you moved SL to 0% fib level after price hit -61.8%. Then full TP at 100%.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread take off half of position at -61.8%, move SL to breakeven, TP 100% - uses the retracement level columns to calculate profit/loss the same as the last few columns, but assuming you took of half the position and moved SL to 0% fib level after price hit -61.8%. Then TP the remaining half at 100%.
Overall Growth(-161.8% TP, 1% Risk) - pretty straightforward. Assuming you risked 1% on each trade, what the overall growth level would be chronologically(spreadsheet is sorted by date).
Based on the reasonable rules I discovered in this backtest:
Date range: 6/11-7/3
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 47.43%
Demo Trading Results
Since this post, I started demo trading this system assuming a 5k capital base and risking ~1% per trade. I've added the details to my spreadsheet for anyone interested. The results are pretty similar to the backtest when you consider real-life conditions/timing are a bit different. I missed some trades due to life(work, out of the house, etc), so that brought my total # of trades and thus overall profit down, but the winrate is nearly identical. I also closed a few trades early due to various reasons(not liking the price action, seeing support/resistance emerge, etc). A quick note is that TD's paper trade system fills at the mid price for both stop and limit orders, so I had to subtract the spread from the raw trade values to get the true profit/loss amount for each trade. I'm heading out of town next week, then after that it'll be time to take this sucker live!
Date range: 7/9-7/30
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 20.73%
Starting Balance: $5,000
Ending Balance: $6,036.51
Live Trading Results
I started live-trading this system on 8/10, and almost immediately had a string of losses much longer than either my backtest or demo period. Murphy's law huh? Anyways, that has me spooked so I'm doing a longer backtest before I start risking more real money. It's going to take me a little while due to the volume of trades, but I'll likely make a new post once I feel comfortable with that and start live trading again.
I’ve been reading these posts on an off for quite some time now and it saddened me to see someone had recently posted their “I quit the game” statement. We all walk through fire to stand in the green valley...and the journey has to be made on foot. And alone. And it’s tough. In response, I wanted to add a list of pointers for people starting out in this insane game and to address what I’ve learned from over a decade of trading Forex. It’s long-ish but it’s based on reality and not a bunch of meaningless retail junk systems and “insider knowledge” by nitwits on YouTube or some 19-year old “whiz kid” who apparently makes ten billion dollars a week with a mystical set-up that’ll only cost you $1,999 to buy! I became a profitable trader by keeping everything simple. I lost thousands when I started out, but I look back now and realise how easily I could’ve avoided those losses. Keep Everything Simple. For the sake of disclosure, I worked for Morgan Stanley for over a decade in fixed income but learned almost everything I know from the forex guys whom I got to know as good friends. They make markets but there’s still a lot to learn from them as a small fry trader. I got into all this as a hobby after annoying the traders with questions, and all these years later it still pays me. There are still occasional nightmare accidents but they’re far rarer to the point where they don’t affect my ROI. Possibly the most clear statement I could make about Forex trading in the large institutional setting is actually a pretty profound one: Forex traders are not what you think they are: every single forex trader I ever worked with (and who lasted the test of time) had the exact same set of personality traits: 1. NOT ONE of them was a gung-ho high-five loudmouth, 2. Every single one of them analysed their mistakes to the point of obsession, 3. They were bookish and not jocks, 4. They had the humility to admit that many early errors were the result of piss-poor planning. The loudmouths last a year and are gone. Guys who last 5, 10, 20 years in a major finance house on the trading floor are nothing like the absurd 1980s Hollywood images you see on your tv; they’re the perfect opposite of that stereotype. The absolute best I ever met was a studious Irish-Catholic guy from Boston who was conscientious, helpful, calm, and utterly committed to one thing: learning from every single error of judgement. To quote him: “Losing teaches you far more than winning”. Enough of that. These points are deliberately broad. Here goes:
Know The Pairs. It amazes me to see countless small account traders speak as though “systems” work across all pairs. They don’t. Trading GBP/CHF is an entirely different beast to trading CHF/JPY. If you don’t know the innate properties of the CHF market or the JPY or the interplay between the AUD and NZD etc then leave them alone until you do. —There’s no rush— Don’t trade pairs until you are clear on what drives ‘commodity currencies’, or what goes on behind currencies which are easily manipulated, or currencies which simply tend to range for months on end instead of having clear trends. Every pair has its own benefits and drawbacks. Google “Tips on trading the JPY” etc etc etc and get to know the personality of these currencies. They’re just products like any other....Would you buy a Honda without knowing a single thing about the brand or its engine or its durability? So why trade a currency you know nothing about?
Indicators are only telling you what you should be able to see in front of you: PRICE AND MARKET STRUCTURE. Take everything off your charts and simply ask one question: What do I see happening right here and right now? What time frame do I see it on? If you can’t spot a simple consolidation, an uptrend, or a downtrend on a quick high-versus-low time frame scan then no indicator on the planet will help you.
Do you know why momentum indicators work on clear trends but are often a complete disaster on ranges? If not, why not? Do you know why such indicators are losing you tons of trades on low TFs? Do you actually understand the simple mathematics of any indicator? If the answer to these questions is “no” then why are you using these things and piling on indicator after indicator after indicator until you have some psychedelic disco on your screen that looks like an intergalactic dogfight in Star Wars? Keep it simple. Know thy indicator.
Risk:Reward Addiction. The greatest profit killer. So you set up your stops and limits at 1:1.5 or whatever and say “That’s me done” only to come back and see that your limit was missed by a soul-crushing 5 pips before reversing trend to cost you $100, $200, $1000. So you say “Ah but the system is fine”. Guys...this isn’t poker; it doesn’t have to be a zero sum game. Get over your 1:1.5 addiction —The Market Does Not Owe You 50 Pips— Which leads to the next point which, frankly, is what has allowed me to make money consistently for my entire trading life...
YOU WILL NEVER GO BROKE TAKING A PROFIT. So you want to take that 50-pip profit in two hours because some analyst says it’ll happen or because your trend lines say it has to happen. You set your 1:1.5 order. “I’ll check where I’m at in an hour” you say. An hour later you see you’re up 18 pips and you feel you’re owed more by now. “If I close this trade now I could be missing out on a stack”. So what?! Here’s an example: I trade in sterling. I was watching GBP climb against it’s post-GDP flop report and once I was up £157 I thought “This is going to start bouncing off resistance all morning and I don’t need the hassle of riding the rollercoaster all day long”. So I closed it, took the £157, went to make breakfast. Came back shortly afterwards and looked at the chart and saw that I could’ve made about £550 if I’d trusted myself. Do I care? Absolutely not...in fact it usually makes me laugh. So I enter another trade, make another quick £40, then another £95. Almost £300 in less than 45 mins and I’m supposed to cry over the £250 I “missed out on”?
£300 in less than an hour for doing nothing more than waiting for some volatility then tapping a keyboard. It’s almost a sin to make money that easily and I don’t “deserve” any of it. Shut off the laptop. Go out for the day. Does the following sound familiar? “Okay I’m almost at my take-profit...almost!.....almost!....okay it’s bouncing away from me but it’ll come back. Come back, damnit!! Jesus come back to my limit! Ah for F**k’s sakes!! This is complete crap; that trade was almost done! This is rigged! This is worse than poker! This is total BS!!” So when you were 50% or 75% toward your goal and could see the trade slipping away why wasn’t $100 or $200 enough? You need more than that?...really?! So point 6:
Tomorrow Is Another Day. Lordy Lordy, you only made $186 all day. What a disaster! Did you lose anything? Nope. Will the market be open again tomorrow? Yep. Does London open in just four hours? Yep. Is the NOK/SGD/EUR whatever still looking shitty? Yep. So let it go- there are endless THOUSANDS of trades you can make in your lifetime and you need to let a small gain be seen for what it is: ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL PROFIT.
Four or five solid but small profits in a day = One Large Profit. I don’t care how I make it, I don’t care if it’s ten lots of £20, I don’t care if I make the lot in a single trade in 30 seconds either. And once I have a nice sum I switch the computer off and leave it the Fk alone. I don’t care if Brexit is due to detonate the pound or if some Fed guy is going to crap all over the USD in his speech; I’ve made my money and I’m out for the day. There will be other speeches, other detonations. I could get into the entire process by which I trade but it’s aggravatingly basic trend-following mostly based on fundamentals. Losing in this business really does boil down to the same appalling combination of traits that kill most traders: Greed, Impatience, Addiction. Do I trade every day? Absolutely not; if there’s nothing with higher probability trades then I just leave it alone. When I hit my target I’m out for the day- the market doesn’t give a crap about me and I don’t give a crap about the market, if you see my meaning. I played poker semi-professionally for two years and it’s absolutely soul-destroying to be “cold decked” for a whole week. But every player has to experience it in order to lose the arrogance and the bravado; losing is fine as long as you learn from it. One day you’ll be in a position to fold pocket Kings because you’ll know you’re dead in the water. The currency markets are exactly the same in that one regard: if you learn from the past you’ll know when it’s time to get out of that stupid trade or that stupid “system” that sounded so great when you had a demo account. Bank a profit. Keep your charts simple. Know the pairs. Be patient. Touch nothing till you understand it inside out. And if you’re not enjoying the game....STOP PLAYING. [if people find this helpful I might post a thread on the best books I’ve studied from and why most forex books are utterly repetitious bullshit]. Peace.
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The coronavirus has changed everything. When analysts gave forecasts for 2020 at the end of last year, no one could foresee that the whole world would be seized by the pandemic. Call it a “black swan” or not, it’s necessary to re-evaluate the situation and adjust the medium- and the long-term outlook. Below you will find the analysis of the main Forex drivers and the overview of the prospects for the key commodities.
In 2019, economists had some fears of a potential US recession. Well, they were right not only about the USA, but also about the whole world as lockdowns pushed every country to the deep downturn. Now it’s clear that earlier the view was naturally more optimistic. How encouraging the US unemployment rate and NFP were at the end of 2019! We couldn’t imagine at that time that more than 33 million Americans would lose jobs and economic activity would fall to unprecedented lows. The Fed made a dire scenario for the prolonged US recession. All the needed measures have been taken, almost 3 trillion dollars were provided to support the market and additional aids are expected. Anyway, the US dollar gains as a safe-haven currency. The collapse of USD this year remains highly unlikely.
Central banks’ monetary policy
In December, we expected the Federal Reserve to be patient in its monetary policy decisions. At the same time, we didn’t underestimate the power of rate cuts due to recession fears. Coronavirus outbreak flipped the script with the Federal Reserve unveiling outstanding measures to support the suffering economy. The first rate cut from 1.5-1.75% to 1-1.25% happened at the beginning of March and was followed by an even bigger rate cut to the range of 0-0.25% just after a week. At the same time, the regulator announced an unlimited buying of mortgage-backed securities and plans to buy corporate bonds and bonds backed by consumer debt. Moreover, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn’t exclude the possibility of negative interest rates. Even though our forecasts were not 100% accurate, the upside for the USD has been indeed limited. As for the stock market, after a shock wave caused by Covid-19, the ultra-loose monetary policy pushed the indices up. Other major central banks also joined the easing game. The Reserve banks of Australia and New Zealand cut their interest rate to unprecedented lows of 0.25%. The Bank of England and the Bank of Canada lowered their interest rate as well to 0.1% and 0.25% respectively. As for the European Central bank, it keeps the zero interest rate on hold. The supportive tool the ECB presented is the 750 billion euro Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) aimed to counter the serious risks to the outlook of the Eurozone.
As all major central banks conduct almost similar easing policy, the Forex pairs can fluctuate within certain levels for a long period. That is actually a good news for range-bound traders, as channels are expected to remain quite strong.
ECB The European Central Bank let the market know that it was aiming to do whatever it takes to save the euro area from the coronavirus damage. However, trouble always brings his brother: Germany was so tired to be the sponsor of the unlimited bond-purchasing ECB program that the German court claimed that it actually violated constitution. Now, the ECB has three months to explain that purchases were "proportionate". The ECB credibility is under threat as Germany may pull out of the next ECB's bond purchases. This situation has made euro quite volatile.
Boris Johnson hasn’t kept his promise “to get Brexit done” yet. However, we can forgive him for that as this year brings much worse problems to deal with. Now, when countries are getting over the coronavirus shock, the UK and EU should hold the last round of trade talks and finalize an agreement by the end of December. Some analysts are skeptical about that. They think the deadline could be extended beyond the end of December, leaving the UK subject to tariffs on most goods. This would be devastating for the British pound. The sooner the UK and EU make a deal, the better for GBP.
Oil prices spent last year between $50 and $70. December was positive with the US and China ceasing fire in the trade war and OPEC extending production cuts. Possibility of a scenario where prices drop to 0 and below was absolutely inconceivable even for the most pessimistic observers, and yet it came true. It marked the beginning of 2020 with historically unseen turbulence, even apart from the coronavirus hit. In the long term, however, there are all fundamentals for oil prices to get back to where they were. However, that may not happen this year. Observers predict that oil prices will recover to the levels of $55-60 if there is nothing in the way during the year. Otherwise, $30 is seen as the safest baseline level for the commodity during 2020.
Just like in 2019, the stock market had a nightmarish beginning of 2020. S&P lost 35%, with some stocks losing more than 50% of value. As the summer season is coming, the market sees 50% of the losses recovered in most sectors. While the shape of recovery is being discussed, most analysts agree that after the worst-performing Q2, the S&P will continue restoring its value. Notice that the situation is different for different stocks. Locked by the anti-virus restrictions, most of the world population was forced to spend weeks and months at home facing their TVs, laptops, and desktops. That made strong Internet-related companies blossom, so we saw Amazon and Netflix rise to even higher value than before the virus. On the contrary, the healthcare sector struggling to invent the vaccine saw Moderna, BionTech, Inovio, and other new and old pharma companies surge to unexpected heights.
IT and Internet communications companies will likely gain much more attention during the year.
Google, Nvidia, Disney, Apple, and many more around the IT and Internet sectors have the full potential to spearhead the S&P in 2020 and further on.
تدوينة تقني ارتقي التكنولوجيا (blog3tech) تدوينة شاملة اهم شروحات وحلول تقنية و بلوجرتطوير مواقع وجديد اخبار التقنية والويب في المجالات الآتية الربح من الانترنت, استراتيجية الربح من الانترنت، ادسنس, كيفية ربح المال من الانترنت للمبتدئين, الربح من اليوتيوب, تقنية المعلومات, جوجل, تطبيقات, بحث, احدث و بحث عن التكنولوجيا, اندرويد, انشاء موقع بلوجر,مدونة بلوجر, عمل مدونة على جوجل,قوالب, السيو, محرك البحث, التسويق بالمحتوى, افضل برامج, تسويق الكتروني, كيفية كتابة المحتوى من خلال برامج ادارة المواقع, فيس بوك, فوتوشوب اون لاين, اليوتيوب, مواضيع, مقالات, تدوين,حماية وتشفير,vpn, مجاني. 📷
هل أنت جديد في عالم تداولاتالفوركسوتداول العملات الرقمية؟ ومحتار بسبب التفاصيل التقنية الكثيرة المختلفة التي يبدو بأنها تستخدم لوصف نفس الأمور وبشكل متقارب بشأن الأسواق المالية؟ تريد أن تتعلم كيفية التداول في فوركس؟ من المهم أن يتوفر لديك الإمكانية قبل أن تبدأ التداول بالمال الحقيقي، حيث ان الأخطاء الناتجة عن سوء فهم مبادئ التنفيذ الأساسية مثل الإنتشار وحجم الوضعية ، يمكن أن تكون مكلفة جداً. هذا المقالة سوف توضح اساسيات الفوركس ستفيد المبتدئ والمتقدم في تداول الفوركس تفسر نقاط "الكيف" و "لماذا" الرئيسية مثل العمل الرئيسي للسوق وكيفية شراء وبيع فوركس ومعنى الرافعة المالية. 📷 ماهو الفوركس وماهي تجارة الفوركس forex وطريقة الربح من الانترنت بالتداول يعتبر الربح من تجارة الفوركس تحليل سوق العملات وسعر الصرف منافضل طريقة الربح من الانترنتبعيداَ عن انشاء مدونة بلوجر وكتابة تدوينة بلوجرمثالية او جلب ترافك , وضرورة أرشفة الموقع لتضهر تدويناتك على محرك البحث وتعلم السيوSEOثم الإشتراك في احدى الشركات الاعلانية مثلجوجل ادسنس Google adsenseأنظر كم من الجهد والوقت ستهدر لكي تربح ربما دولارات ربما لا يكفيك الاعتماد علية في تحقيق الدخل من مواقعك للإستغناء عن عمل آخر ولكن انا انصحك إذا لم يوجد لديك رأس مال فهذا أنسب طريقة في بدايت تحقيق دخل من الأنترنت أما اذا كنت تملك راس مال ليس ضرورياَ عالي ولكن مناسب لبدء اول تداول من الأنترنت ولآن إبدأ مع أول موضوع لتسلك الطريق الصحيح في الربح من تجارة الفوركس وتداول العملات.بعد قرائة هذه الصفحة، سوف تفهم مالذي تعنيه العروض المختلفة من وسطاء فوركس، بالإضافة إلى الأنواع المختلفة من الأوامر للدخول والخروج في التداولات والتي يمكن أن تطبقها على تداولاتك، بما في ذلك نقاط توقف الخسائر والأوامر السوقية وأوامر الحد. أخيراً، عندما تشعر بالراحة وبالإستعداد للبدأ، نفسر لك عملية اختيار وسيط فوركس الحاصل على ، والذي من غير المحتمل أن يحاول الإحتيال عليك، والقادر على تقديم خيارات مناسبة من الأصول التي يمكنك التداول بها مع تنفيذ جيد.
ماهو الفوركس أو تداول العملات الرقمية : إليك التفاصيل
الفوركس (FOREX)هو السوق الذي يتم فيه تداول العملات. يعتبر سوق الفوركس أكبر الأسواق وأكثرها سيولة في العالم ، حيث يبلغ متوسط قيمة الأسهم المتداولة تريليونات الدولارات في اليوم. ويشمل جميع العملات في العالم.هل تريد تعلم الفوريكس ؟يوجد سوق الصرف الأجنبي ، أو سوق الفوركس ، للسماح بالتداول العالمي للعملات الرقمية الدولية. من خلال جمع المشترين والبائعين في أسواق بيع وشراء وعرض مزادات كل العملات الرقمية ، يحدد السوق القيمة النسبية لكل عملة مقابل مجموعة من العملات الأخرى.يعد تحويل العملة أمرًا ضروريًا لتسهيل التجارة الدولية للفوركس، ولكن سوق تداول العملات الأجنبية يتيح أيضًا المضاربة المباشرة على القيمة النسبية لكل عملة على حدة. بمعنى أنها تسمح للمتداولين بشراء وبيع عملات معينة بهدف الحصول على ربح فقط.عندما تكون العملة قوية في سوق الفوركس ، عادة ما يتم تداولها بسعر صرف مرتفع مقابل تبديلها بسعر صرف العملات الأخرى ، وسعرها يرتفع بشكل عام . عندما تكون العملة ضعيفة في سوق التداول ، يتم تداولها عادة بسعر صرف منخفض مقابل العملات الأخرى ، وسعرها ينخفض بشكل عام.
أساسيات سوق الفوركس :
هل تسائلت يوماَ عن كيفية الربح من البيتكوين ؟
التمكن من تداول الفوركس - FX
لا يوجد سوق مركزي لتبادل العملات. تتم التجارة على المنضدة. يفتح سوق الفوركس على مدار 24 ساعة في اليوم ، خمسة أيام في الأسبوع ، باستثناء أيام العطل ، ويتم تداول العملات في جميع أنحاء العالم.يعتبر الفوركس أكبر سوق في العالم من حيث إجمالي القيمة النقدية المتداولة ، وقد يشارك أي شخص أو شركة أو بلد في هذا السوق.اساسيات الفوركسعادة ما يتم اختصار مصطلح تبادل العملات الأجنبية باسم "الفوركس" وأحيانًا باسم "الفوركس".يعد سوق الصرف الأجنبي العالمي أكبر سوق مالي وأكثرها سيولة في العالم ، حيث يبلغ متوسط حجم التداول اليومي تريليونات الدولارات. تتم معاملات الفوركس إما على الفور أو على أساس التقدم. لا يوجد سوق مركزي لمعاملات الفوركس ، والتي يتم تنفيذها على العداد وعلى مدار الساعة. تقع أكبر أسواق صرف العملات الأجنبية في المراكز المالية الرئيسية مثل لندن ونيويورك وسنغافورة وطوكيو وفرانكفورت وهونغ كونغ وسيدني.
كيف اصبح سوق الفوركس كبير؟
سوق الفوركس فريد من نوعه لعدة أسباب ، ويرجع ذلك أساسا إلى حجمه. حجم التداول عموما كبير جدا. على سبيل المثال ، بلغ متوسط التداول في أسواق العملات الأجنبية 5.1 تريليون دولار في اليوم في أبريل 2016 ، وفقًا لبنك التسويات الدولية ، المملوك من قبل 60 مصرفًا مركزيًا ، ويتم استخدامه للعمل في مجال المسؤولية النقدية والمالية.يمكن العثور على أكبر المراكز التجارية في العالم في لندن ونيويورك وسنغافورة وطوكيو.
كيف تتداول في سوق الفوركس ؟ كيف الحصول على تحليل فوركس بشكل دقيق ؟
السوق مفتوح 24 ساعة في اليوم ، خمسة أيام في الأسبوع عبر المراكز المالية الرئيسية في جميع أنحاء العالم. هذا يعني أنه يمكنك شراء أو بيع العملات في أي وقت خلال اليوم.سوق الصرف الأجنبي ليس بالضبط محطة واحدة. هناك مجموعة متنوعة من الطرق المختلفة التي يمكن أن يمر بها المستثمر من أجل تنفيذ عمليات تداول الفوركس. يمكنك الذهاب من خلال تجار مختلفين أو من خلال مراكز مالية مختلفة ، والتي تستخدم مجموعة من الشبكات الإلكترونية.من وجهة نظر تاريخية ، كانت العملات الأجنبية في الماضي مفهوما للحكومات والشركات الكبرى وصناديق التحوط. ولكن في عالم اليوم ، تكون عمليات التداول سهلة مثل النقر على الفأرة - حيث أن إمكانية الوصول ليست مشكلة ، وهذا يعني أن أي شخص يمكنه القيام بذلك. في الواقع ، العديد من شركات الاستثمار تتيح الفرصة للأفراد لفتح الحسابات وتداول العملات ومع ذلك وكلما اختاروا.عند التداول في سوق الفوركس ، فأنت تشتري أو تبيع عملة بلد معين. لكن لا يوجد تبادل مادي للأموال من طرف إلى آخر. هذا ما يحدث في كشك صرف العملات الأجنبية - فكر بسائح يزور تايمز سكوير في مدينة نيويورك من اليابان. قد يقوم بتحويل الين (المادي) إلى العملة الفعلية بالدولار الأمريكي (وقد يتم فرض رسوم عمولة على ذلك) حتى يتمكن من إنفاق أمواله أثناء سفره. ولكن في عالم الأسواق الإلكترونية ، عادة ما يتخذ المتداولون مركزًا بعملة معينة ، على أمل أن تكون هناك حركة صعودية وقوة في العملة التي يشترونها (أو ضعفها إذا كانوا يبيعون) حتى يتمكنوا من تحقيق الربح.الدولار الأمريكي هو العملة الأكثر تداولاً. اليورو هو العملة الأكثر تداولا تداولا ، يليه الين الياباني والجنيه الإسترليني والفرنك السويسري.تتحرك تحركات السوق من خلال مجموعة من المضاربات ، خاصة على المدى القصير. القوة الاقتصادية والنمو. وفروق سعر الفائدة.
أزواج عملات التداول عبر الفوركس
يتكون سوق الفوركس من مجموعة من أزواج العملات الأجنبية. يمثل كل زوج تبادل عملة مسماة بعملة أخرى مسماة. على سبيل المثال ، يمثل الزوج GBP / USD تبادل الجنيه الاسترليني إلى الدولار الأمريكي. تكون قيم العملات دائمًا نسبيًا ، حيث لا يمكن تحديد سعر عملة واحدة إلا بعملة أخرى.إذا كنت جديدًا في تداول الفوركس ، فسوف تكون أزواج العملات الأجنبية الأكثر أهمية هي EUR / USD ، و GBP / USD ، و USD / JPY ، و EUR / GBP ، وأزواج أخرى تسمى 'الرئيسية'. عادة ما تكون هذه هي الأزواج الأكثر تداولا ، على الرغم من أن هناك أيضا مجموعة كبيرة ومتنوعة من الأزواج "الطفيفة" أو "الغريبة" مما يتيح لك المضاربة على قوة العملات مثل الراند الجنوب أفريقي أو الفورنت المجري.
طريقة الرهان المنتشر أو تداول CFD
تقدم InterTrader طريقتين للمشاركة في سوق الفوركس: انتشار الرهان وتداول العقود مقابل الفروقات. تسمح لك كلتا الطريقتين بالتخمين على أسعار الفوركس دون الاضطرار إلى إجراء عملية شراء فعلي أو بيع ، ويسمح لك كلاهما بزيادة استخدام رأس المال الاستثماري إلى أقصى حد.تتيح لك مراهنات السبريد شراء أو بيع أي زوج من العملات الأجنبية مقابل مبلغ معين بالنسبة لأي حركة في السعر. على سبيل المثال ، قد تشتري EUR / USD مقابل 10 جنيهات إسترلينية لكل حركة "نقطة" (النقطة هي أصغر وحدة تداول بالسعر المعلن) ، مما يعني أنك ستجني 10 جنيهات إسترلينية عن كل نقطة ترتفع فيها الأسعار (إذا كان اليورو قوية مقابل الدولار) وتفقد 10 جنيهات استرلينية عن كل نقطة ينخفض السعر (إذا كان اليورو ضعيف مقابل الدولار).هذه طريقة بسيطة لتتبع الربح والخسارة مقابل حركة أسعار الفوركس ، دون الحاجة إلى تحويل المبالغ من عملة إلى أخرى. اكتشف المزيد حول الرهان المنتشر.
تداول العقود مقابل الفروقات (CFD):
يكرر عملية إعادة عملة واحدة إلى عملة أخرى بشكل أكبر. تفتح عقدًا يمثل صفقة بمبلغ معين في زوج الفوركس. على سبيل المثال ، مع InterTrader ، يمثل 1 CFD من EUR / GBP تبادل 10،000 € إلى الجنيه الاسترليني.لنفرض أنك تشتري 1 سي إف دي من زوج اليورو / الجنيه الإسترليني عند 0.8481 ، وهذا يمثل تبادلاً بقيمة 10000 يورو إلى 8481 جنيه إسترليني. إذا قمت لاحقاً ببيع هذه العقود مقابل الفروقات بسعر 0.8692 (أي 8692 جنيهاً استرلينياً) فإنك ستجني ربحاً من سعر البيع (8692 جنيهاً استرلينياً) مطروحاً منه سعر الشراء (8481 جنيهاً استرلينياً) الذي يساوي 211 جنيهاً استرلينياً. اكتشف المزيد حول تداول CFD.مع كل من مراهنات الفرق والعقود مقابل الفروقات ، لن تضطر إلى إيداع القيمة الكاملة لصفقتك لفتح صفقتك. على سبيل المثال ، لفتح CFD أعلاه ، فإنك تحتاج فقط إلى جزء من مبلغ 8481 جنيهًا إسترلينيًا كاملاً في حسابك ، والذي يهدف إلى تغطية خسائرك المحتملة. وهذا يمنحك قوة ، حيث يمكنك زيادة معدل العائد على رأس المال الأولي الخاص بك ، بالمقارنة مع جعل التجارة المادية في سوق الفوركس.ومع ذلك ، يجب أن تلاحظ أن هذه الحادثة تزيد بالمثل مستوى المخاطر ، وأنك قد تفقد أكثر من الإيداع الأولي الذي تستخدمه لفتح مركزك.`مواضيع ذات صلة :
This has been bugging me for a while so thank you for endulging my rambling. TL;DR at the end. I'd like for everyone to just think about what we're trying to do here. Don't forget what the ultimate goal is. Anyone remember? Is it to make a profit? No, that's a secondary goal. The primary goal is to develop widespread adoption of cryptocurrency as an alternative to fiat currency. Anyone remember this lofty goal or did we all forget this while chasing 30% daily price swings. We're trying to complete with USD, GBP, EUR, and CNY, remember? This is EUR vs. USD. You'll note that this is all data (or click on "All" button on the bottom), going back to 1993 through today. What do you notice? You'll notice an open of $1.22 to €1. After a few months, it fell about 10%, then rose up 24% over the next two years only to drop about 40% over seven years and then almost doubling over eight years only to drop about a third in the last ten years to where it is today - almost where we were 25 years ago (approximately). This is BTC vs. USD. You'll note that this is all data going back to 2011. During the last seven years it has... oh my God are you kidding me?! This is LTC vs. USD. Let's not forget what we're talking about. We're talking about currency. For currency to be used, it needs to be relatively stable. Now compare the charts above. Let's say we created a new country called Cryptonia. Which of these would you like to use as currency? EUR? BTC? LTC? My money is on EUR. Why? Because it's relatively stable. Now let's fast forward a bit and pretend that Cryptonia has adopted Litecoin as its official currency. Our largest trading partner is the US. How would transactions between merchants work in this scenario, taking into account the last few days. I'll use the following prices:
Let's run through a transaction: 1/16
Cryptonian citizen C1 is selling a widget at 1 Litecoin to an American citizen A1
A1 pays $227 and C1 gets that converted to 1LTC
C1 is also selling another widget to A2 on the same day for 1LTC and has 2LTC total
A1 decides that they don't want the item and would like to return it. C1 issues refund of 1LTC. A1 gets $163. A1 loses $64 or 28.2% on the return.
C1 now has 1LTC
A2 is decides to do nothing.
A2 decides to sell the widget to C2 for 1LTC
C2 says the price is fair since it was 1LTC a few days ago and buys it
A2 gets $194, a 19% profit from two days ago
A1 is pissed
C1 is happy since they made one sale
A2 is happy since they made a 19% profit
C2 is happy since they have a widget at a fair price
This works both ways as far as you can do the math in USD vs. LTC to see how this screws over at least one party due to the wild price swings. Note: fiat currency does the same thing with one key difference explained later on. Don't forget that this is all within 3 days. Now sure, obviously the last few days isn't something that happens every day ... but doesn't it? Look at the examples of EUR:USD. Any sharp spikes or drops have taken months to execute - enough time for relative prices to adjust. Look at cryptocurrency prices - the swings (from a percentage basis) are wild on a regular basis. In short, cryptocurrency isn't acting like currency. It's acting like an asset and not just an asset but a highly speculative one. The IRS is right to treat it like an asset because if it looks like an asset, and it acts like an asset, then it is an asset. Where do I believe this should go? I believe cryptocurrency market needs to mature. I believe these drastic price swings need to stop. When will this happen? I believe it'll happen when the cryptocurrency market reaches a happy plateau where the market cap has reached a point where the buyers and sellers mostly eliminate one another and the relatively large price swings - from a percent point of view - are as boring as Mr. Stein. EUR vs. USD went up 0.03% today. 0.03%. In LTC-speek, that's going up $0.58 for the whole day. Oh and it was a wild ride too. Why it went all the way down to $1.21697 and all the way up to 1.22645. I know, I know - tie me down because I'm out of control. Is this the only problem? No. Cryptocurrency has another problem and that's the sheer number of types of coins available. How many coins are available? 1,448. Nearly 1,500 coins all competing with each other for market share. We have Bitcoin at about $200b all the way to something like Digital Money Bits (DMB, an appropriate acronym). What is it? Who cares, it's worth $3,832. Not $3.832 billion or million but literally $3,832 with a volume of $35,509 today and hey, just this June, its market cap reached an all time high of $62,000! You missed the recent run-up though and boy did you miss it. On January 1st, its market cap was worth almost five hundred dollars! Yep, about two Litecoins! But look at it now - it went from $500 market cap to $3,832 in less than three weeks. Clearly this one is shooting to the moon. This is a problem. Decentralization has an unfortunate side effect of - duh - nobody being in charge. There's no real clearance for these and some people with a little bit of money can literally copy and paste a whitepaper and have this chart and have a serious valuation of almost $17b from $140 million in literally 30 days. This doesn't act like a currency either. This is a problem. Don't forget, this isn't like the dot-com era. We're not launching IPO's and .com companies that have different ideas. Amazon isn't like Ebay, or Google, or Yahoo, or Facebook or anything else. They all have different ideas for different segments of the population. We are in the cryptocurrency market. The world today has 180 fiat currencies. Cryptocurrency market is approaching 1,500. We need to trim the fat and the outright forgeries. Market cap isn't enough to weed them out. There needs to be something, a stabilizing force, that should act as a clearinghouse for launch of new cryptocurrencies. The market has failed to destroy shitcoins. Heck, it rewarded them based on lies, paid endorsements, FOMO, and FUD for other coins. This doesn't help the cryptocurrency market. It helps a few people get really wealthy really quickly and you are left holding the bag, so to speak. Should coins only be allowed to be introduced when its network reaches a certain hash rate? Isn't that the only objective point of value we have - number of mathematical calculations and power used in those calculations? You can't fake that. What's another problem with cryptocurrency? It's what it represents. The governments don't see crypto as a positive force. After all, it directly competes with their own currencies. Can the governments shut this down? No - this is the Internet, after all. But they can kill it in other ways. I don't know how many people here remember but my first brush with Bitcoin was the ransomware viruses which wanted $300 in Bitcoin to unlock files. Bitcoin was seen as something tied to illegal activities. If governments - and let's say the US, South Korea, and China in particular - ban Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in particular then what they'll really do is make transactions illegal. What's the on-ramp and off-ramp to/from crypto? The banks which are already regulated. Now let's say you're in the US, your bank account is tied to your Coinbase account and you have some cryptocurrency. US issues a regulation which states that trading cryptocurrency is now illegal. It issues orders to all US banks to shut down related accounts. The following things will happen: cryptocurrency prices will tank and everyone is going to scramble taking money out which would likely overload the system, causing massive delays. But let's say you're left holding your crypto and it's been a month. What can you do with it? Not much. Crypto isn't accepted in enough places yet. You can continue holding, hoping the price and ability to extract will come back one day. After all, you can't get your money back. Your bank closed your related account. You can open another one at any new bank but they'll either ban you from connecting your account to Coinbase or they'll confiscate any money coming from Coinbase and charge you with a crime. Now have the governments banned crypto? No - you can use and trade crypto all you want since it can't be traced. But have they effectively? Yes. Ironically, it's the banks that'll save us and I think that's why Ripple blew up. After all, if you have a cryptocurrency that sucks the bank's [censored] and plays along, you can get:
tied to various governments, i.e. no ban, little competition
and use the banks money for lobbying to make sure the governments don't ban it
I think that's why something like Ripple blew up - because it doesn't care much about regular people, it wants to be the speedy highway for bank<->bank transfers. What's a solution to this problem? More regulation and playing nice with the governments. Crypto isn't going mainstream if you shut out all governments. It needs to be connected. This means working with regulators to make sure that KYC laws are followed, that people report and pay money on any gains, and that - to a point - there's some supervision and tracing of transactions in a way that if you're robbed, you can get your money back. This will create a new job field, which - considering our current growth - will create a whole slew of high-paying white-collar jobs. Considering the high-level of transactions, banks would start this, followed by private companies, governments, and law-enforcement agencies. A good way to start this is what CBOE and CME have started to do - legitimize the currency. This is a foot in the door to the real holy grail: FOREX markets. When it's legitimized and not in serious competition with governments, it'll be embraced and its availability - along with instant transfers and low fees - will be widely supported by serious platforms. Until these problems are fixed, the cryptocurrency market will remain what it is today: a speculative asset and not a currency. During the time it's taken me to write this post, Litecoin has gone up 2.6%. Euro remains at 0.03% gain. Thanks for reading! TL;DR
We're supposed to be creating a new type of currency - cryptocurrency - as opposed to chasing profits. To do this, we need to have stable charts and not wild price swings.
We need to dump most coins on the market and focus on serious ideas that have potential. Market cap has failed to reign in fraud with large, multi-billion dollar shitcoins flooding in. Network hash rate and power usage is a measure we can use to determine objective worth.
We're competing with governments and until we find a way to work with them, the governments can choke the life out of the entire cryptocurrency markets. This should start with KYC implementations and interoperability with the markets such as FOREX.
An analysis of the Japanese Yen, and key drivers of currency.
I've been seeing interesting moves in the macroeconomic markets, especially when it comes to Japan. They're a fun case study, read up on abenomics, their NIRP, aging population, etc...there's a deep rabbit hole you can get in when it comes to global markets. I've heard people bitching about the currency market not making sense after Japan adopts NIRP yet the Yen is appreciating. Boo fucking hoo. Interest rates aren't the only driver of currency. In order to understand what's going on with the Yen, you should be paying attention to a few things: a. monetary policy: typically higher interest rates means currency appreciation. More printing means depreciation. b. trade balance: more demand (i.e. increasing positive net exports) means currency appreciation. Japanese net exports have been on a sharp rise since 2014 shifting from a net negative to net positive exporter. c. GDP: there a positive correlation between rising GDP and currency appreciation. As aggregate demand goes up, currencies rise. If you know anything about economics, I just said the same thing twice. Japanese GDP has seen many ups and downs since the mid-90s amid growing global GDP, but generally flat. d. debt: this really comes into play when a country is neck deep in shit and defaults on their bonds. Not a huge influence for developed countries IMO. It should be pointed out that Japan has a very high debt-to-gdp ratio.Holy fuck batman 229%? e. other countries: what's happening with inflation? Let's take the U.S. for example. The fed believes that gradual rate hikes will be prudent. This, as we know, should cause the USD to appreciate, holding all else equal. One effect rising interest rates creates is that it will result in higher inflation. Now, this is where I get to the relationship between inflation and currency. If international inflation is high relative to domestic inflation, this will have an appreciating influence on domestic interest exchange rates. Among other factors, this is because goods in Japan are cheaper relative to goods in the USA. If the USA and Japan were the only two countries in the world, if the US is creating a rise in inflation, and Japan is creating a drop in inflation , this means, holding everything equal, the Yen appreciates. While simplistic, it helps illustrate a very complex relationship. There are many countries in the world, with different rates of inflation. I think a lot of countries can be treated as "noise" when trading pairs or inferring moves in equity markets from implications in the forex market. Key currencies are the USD, Yen, EUR, GBP, China, etc. When I model currencies, I look at the size of an economy as well. So inflation in the USA and China (which are both rising) will have a greater influence than in South Africa, for example. So how do you YOLO this shit? First of all, I'm not going to tell you what to buy or sell. That's up to you. But consider this. Knowing what you know now, before making a trade decision, think to yourself: how do moves in the ForEx market influence equities, bonds, etc.? What do you think Abe will do next? What about the rest of the world? What are the big banks and market makers doing? Here's a chart of the USD/YEN with some key fib levels at a Q311 low to a Q116 high. Once you formulate a good hypothesis go ahead and smash that buy/sell button.
Trade direct on the forex market with leverage (very risky if you're a retard who doesn't know what they are doing). Great way to lose more than what you invested, but also a great way to earn handsome returns, so I would consider it /wsb appropriate. Bonus points if you can get over 200x leverage.
Leveraged ETFs: JPNL (3x equities bull), JPNS (3x equities bear), JGBT (3x gvt. bond bull), JGBD (3x gvt. bond bear) - these aren't very liquid. Bonds have lower movement I wouldn't consider them as rewarding as the first two if you're day trading.
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How Does Hidden Scalping Code Works? Hidden Scalping Code is the proven and authentic scalping indicator that could realistically change your life. This program helps you to choose between three different trading styles. This software is depending on how you prefer to trade, you can choose Aggressive, Medium or Safe trading style. You can simply open it again and continue from where you left off without having any signals disappear or change. This program is the result of years of trading experience with trial and error and a lot of sleepless nights. It relies on a super smart revolutionary mathematical algorithm to predict the price movements before they even happen. It doesn’t matter whether you have trading experience or not. All of the difficult calculations are done automatically inside the code – just buy or sell when it tells you. This is all you need to know to use this software. This scalping indicator can be used on M1 and M5. It combines a lot of the most profitable trading systems with numerous trading algorithms and powerful scalping tricks that make you a ton of winning trades. VISIT HIDDEN SCALPING CODE OFFICIAL WEBSITE now we understand the most significant aspects of Currency Forex Robotic; it is a mainly grid hedge trading robot, functioning 24/5, uses the M30 timeframe and the pairs additionally working yet not officially supported are AUDJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY and EURJPY. We see plenty of trading pairs here, is it possible? They started guide is somewhat not much information but their member area does absolutely fill this gap. I see a lot of stuff in there included extra downloads, extra tutorials and updated set files frequently as they promise. In addition, as you’ll see, they provide 4 extra daily trading signals on the EA official website. I don’t use the forecasting signals so cannot have any comments about the signals. More couple of realities relating to this EA should be known, I will attempt to list them immediately. It is most likely not an excellent theory to manually configure each pair SL and TP although you can. The EA gets its set ups upgraded from the stifles after authorized gain access to configuring each pair preset values; each setting has its own stop loss and take profit so I cannot list all in here. Just an example, the stop loss ranges from 180 pips on EURUSD and GBPUSD to as high as 300 on, and so on. The stop loss is rarely reached, though – by deeper analyzing the backrests. It’s additionally an ability to choose gains early prior to the choose take profit target is hit by its positions. I am quite happy with the way it open extra positions when the market move in not favorable direction. Some secret ways in here that I cannot understand that lower the drawdown (and risk) when the robot scales in to positions. The strategy itself is pretty complicated that you have to be careful to read their instructions or using set files on official site only; a few signs which are provided with Metatrader are affected in an ingenious approach, so the entry signals are identified. It’s retry iterations for opening/closing orders, signifying a particular amount of expertise with automatic trading in live. Instead the DLL programming is sometimes a hurdle for EAs working on multiple pairs with the identical DLL, in this situation it appears to be entirely threaded safe.
Hidden Scalping Code is the best forex trading solution to avoid trading during any uncertain market periods. Hidden Scalping Code does it’s works This will help you sell better on the foreign exchange market and make more money. This program will analyze all the graphics for you every second! So, you get the best trend of the pair and time frame, at any time you want. Hidden Scalping Code Free Download This Hidden Scalping Code software is less expensive compared to other forex software. You need a computer with an internet connection. All setup information is provided in the Hidden Scalping Code user’s guide. Hidden Scalping Code Software Reviews
Hidden Scalping Code: This is a special trend indicator that is available only on the official website. Absolutely no repaint! It is designed to work on M15, M30, H1, H4 and D1 timeframes. Works for all currency pairs, but best on: EUUSD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, EUJPY, GBP/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/CAD. "Hidden Scalping Code" can also inform you of every new signal via review, pop up sound or push alerts. It's very convinient. The special informer that is implemented in this indicator shows trend strength, time left until next candle, last generated signal etc. This will make your trading even more simple and profitable! "Hidden Scalping Code" is designed for MT4 platforms. It is NOT an EA or Robot, but a powerful buy/sell signal arrows scalping indicator software. You get smart signals, use them and make profit. I highly recommend you try "Hidden Scalping Code" right now I have just downloaded the Brand New "Hidden Scalping Code" It's absolutely fantastic! The signals are VERY fast! I already opened two trades and both are currently over 150 pips profit. DOWNLOAD HIDDEN SCALPING CODE NOW
Nicknamed Cable or the cable (in Forex) is the GBP/USD currency pair rate. The term cable is sometimes used also to refer to the British Pound Sterling itself. The Pound Sterling (£) is the fourth-most-traded currency in the Forex market. Here, paired against the US$ (United States Dollar) the official legal tender of the United States, and the predominantly used banknote in majority of ... Economies.com provides the latest technical analysis of the GBP/USD (British Pound Sterling/Dollar). You may find the analysis on a daily basis with forecasts for the global daily trend. You may also find live updates around the clock if any major changes occur in the currency pair. Forex. EUR USD Analysis: BTC USD analysis: NZD USD Analysis: GBP USD Analysis: USD JPY Analysis: USD CAD ... GBP/USD is the forex ticker that shows the value of the British Pound against the US Dollar. It tells traders how many US Dollars are needed to buy a British Pound. GBP/USD Forex Signal: Another New 2-Month High. Adam Lemon on November 10, 2020 Latest News ... Today’s GBP/USD Signals. Risk 0.75% per trade. Trades may only be taken before 5pm London time today. Short Trade Ideas . Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.3258, 1.3320, 1.3370, 1.3402, or 1.3434. Place the stop loss 1 pip ... USD/GBP daily forecast for this month ... Transactions in the international currency market Forex contain a high level of risk. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. All stock prices, indices, futures are indicative and should not rely on trade. The portal gbprate.uk does not accept any liability for any loss that you may incur as a result of using this data. Other forecasts ... Resistance is certainly being tested short term by the GBP/USD and the forex pair did put in a very solid climb higher yesterday, but traders should ask if the gains were too much too soon? It is possible smart money knows something that is not being shared with the public, the sudden burst of value within the GBP/USD happened quickly and occurred on a day when risk-averse trading globally was ... About GBPUSD. This live GBPUSD forex chart comes with drawing tools, indicators and various time scales to aid your forex trading. The Pound to Dollar pair is often known as cable because of the old telecommunication cable which was laid under the Atlantic ocean between United Kingdom and USA.
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